The World's Population Is Projected To Reach In 11.2 Billion In 2100

The world's population is at 7.3 billion, and while it is still expanding, it is doing so more slowly than in the past. By 2050, there will be 9.7 billion people on the planet, up a billion over the course of the next 15 years and another billion or so after that.

There is a 95 percent probability that the world's population will be between 9.5 and 13.3 billion in 2100, according to the UN's "medium variant" forecast, which makes a prediction that fertility rates will fall and life expectancy will rise.

According to the UN's "medium variant" projected, which makes the prediction that fertility rates will fall and life expectancy will rise. In the next twenty years, the population of the world is "basically certain" to increase, but towards the end of the century, there is an approximately 23 percent probability that it will stop growing or start to decline before 2100.

By 2100, Over 80% Of The World Will Live In Africa Or Asia 

Today, Asia is responsible to around 2/3 of the world's population, with China and India leading this region. By 2100, Africa and Asia will be host to 4.4 and 4.9 billion individuals, with the latter bringing up 83% of the world's population as a whole, according to the predictions' regional breakdown.  From a different angle, the percentage of the world's population that is not African or Asian appears to be small and largely stable:

Ways In Which Population Growth Influenced Natural Capital

·         Increasing world population has influenced the natural capital in following ways:

·         Reduction of biodiversity

·         Increasing use of Earth's net primary productivity

·         Increasing genetic resistance of pest species and disease causing bacteria

·         Elimination of many natural predators

·         Introduction of harmful species in environment

·         Interference with biogeochemical cycles

·         Relying on fossil fuels

·         Interference With Biogeochemical Cycle

Important Indicators Of Monitoring Population Growth

If births are higher than deaths, then the population will increase and vice versa. The major indicators are fertility (births), mortality (deaths) and migration. Important indicators are:

Crude Birth Rate: Number of live births per 1000 people per year.

Crude Death Rate: Number of deaths per 1000 people per year.

Fertility Rate: Number of children born to a woman in a lifetime.

Factors Affecting Population Indicators

·         Urbanization

·         Importance of children as part of labour force

·         Cost of raising and educating children

·         Availability of private and public pension systems

·   Education and employment opportunities for women Infant Mortality Rate (the number of children per 1000 live births who die before one year of age. If lower then population is lower)

·         Average age of women at time of marriage

·         Availability of legal abortion

·         Availability of reliable birth control methods

·         Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural norms

Poverty And Population

Poverty is a situation when people are unable to meet their basic needs for adequate food, water, shelter, health and education. Poor people live on equivalent of less than $2 per day. Owing to desperation for short time survival, poor people deplete and degrace forests, soil, grasslands, fisheries, and wildlife at an increasing rate. They do not have the luxury of worrying about long-term environmental quality and sustainability. Population affects population growth thus having more children is a matter of survival for poor. On other hand, environmental degradation has an increasing affect on poverty.

Carrying Capacity

Every environment and ecosystem has some limitations controlled by some Limiting Factors' Condition of the Environment that Limit the Growth of Species or Biotic and Abiotic Factors That Prevent the Continuous Growth of Population'.

Amount of resources in the environment are always limited. Thus, limiting factors control the growth of population. Each ecosystem has a finite capacity for growth connected to its caring capacity.

Carrying Capacity is defined as, 'Number of Individuals of a Species that an Ecosystem can Support - or - Maximum Population of a Given Species that can survive indefinitely in a Given Environment.'

The concept was introduced by a British scholar Thomas Malthus.

Ecological Footprint

"The amount of the biologically productive land and water needed to supply the people in a particular country or area with resources and to absorb and recycle the waste and pollution produced by such resource use."

The average ecological footprint of an individual in a given country or area is called 'Per Capita Ecological Footprint'. The concept of ecological footprint was given by William Rees and Mathis Wackernagel.

Resource Use And Relation With Concept

Resource is anything obtained from the environment to meet our needs and wants. Conservation and management of resources is essential for sustainability. Some sources are directly available to us, e.g. solar energy while others are indirectly available, e.g. petroleum. Some resources are renewed continuously and are called Perpetual Resources, e.g. solar energy. Renewable resources can be replenished fairly quickly from hours to years. The highest rate at which a renewable resource can be used indefinitely without reducing its available supply is called Sustainable Yield. When the use exceeds sustainable yield, the available supply begins to shrink resulting in a process known as Environmental Degradation.

We can overexploit commonly shared resources. The resources fall in three property domains including:

·         Private Properly

·         Common Property

·         Open Access

In summary, understanding population growth, its regional distribution, and its impacts on natural capital and resource use is vital for addressing global challenges related to sustainability, poverty, and environmental conservation.

About the Author: Ihsan Ur Rehman is an environmental graduate with a keen interest in environment, climate and sustainable development. He is also a national level debater and social Activist.